Growth and Poverty Mailing List Archive

["Andy Bullock" <<address removed>>]

Colin Poulton was asking for the evidence base concerning economic growth and 
agriculture. Here, again, I'll take the stance that the outcomes are not 
necessarily in direct economic terms. I have no direct evidence myself, but can 
only put forward some examples from others for wider consumption:

1. "A recent study covering 58 developing countries (DFID, 2002) concluded that 
a 1% increase in agricultural productivity led to a reduction by 0.6-1.2% of 
the proportion of people living on less than $1 a day. The same relationship 
holds true for sub-Saharan Africa. No equivalent relationship on the impact on 
poverty reduction at this scale has been found for manufacturing and services, 
in either rural or urban areas."

2. From FAO (AT 2020/30): Economic growth not a precondition for reducing 
malnutrition : It is possible for countries to raise nutrition levels even in 
the absence of significant economic growth. Mali raised average food 
consumption by almost a third in the 1980s, although per caput household 
expenditures were falling over this period.  Other countries achieved similar 
results at times of low-income growth, mainly through rapid growth in domestic 
food production. Because most agriculture was at subsistence level, increased 
production led directly to improved food intakes in rural populations. Faster 
reductions in the numbers of undernourished can be achieved by according 
increased priority for agriculture, increases in national food production, 
reduced inequality of access to food, combined with continuing interventions to 
cope with the consequences of local food crisis until the root causes for 
undernourishment will have been removed.

3. FAOâs work on the links between hunger and economic growth suggests that 
for sub-Saharan Africa, the economic cost of hunger and malnutrition, as 
reflected in lost productivity, illness and death, is high. Over the period 
1960 to 1990, countries in the region could have attained an average per-caput 
GDP level of US$ 2200 by 1990 if undernourishment had been eliminated. Instead, 
the regionâs average GDP per capita in 1990 was just US $800 per year.

4. 55% of the nearly 12 million deaths each year among under 5-year-olds in the 
developing world are associated with malnutrition. 

5. Anaemia responsible for 20-25% of maternal deaths. (plus reduction in 
educational ability). 

6. Malnutrition leads to an annual 2-4% reduction in GDP.

(4-6 all from FAO)

7. A World Health Organization study concluded that improved vitamin A 
nutriture could prevent 1.3 to 2.5 million deaths each year among children aged 
six months to five years in the developing world.

More broadly, I suggest there is an important lesson for agriculture within 
DFID from the experience of water within DFID. That is that water makes a 
contribution across the development objectives. There is a useful Table in 
DFID's Water Action Plan which illustrates this, and the same has been done 
also for the energy sector. As an example, improved sanitation in schools is a 
major factor in a) improving attendance of adolescent girls at school and b) in 
the recruitment and retention of teachers. These are both significant 
contributions to the education MDG, but just one amongst a whole suite of 
interventions required for that target. I am sure there are similar indirect 
and direct benefits from food and agriculture across the MDGs. I suggest a 
similar exercise be undertaken for agriculture, if it hasn't been done already.

These are just some examples, and I hope others will contribute. Anyone who 
knows DFID will know that evidence-based justifications are essential.

Andy Bullock