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Dana Dalrymple cites an article on the growing deficit of grain production and points out how difficult it is to maintain productivity let alone increase it. China has made amazing progress in increasing yields of cereals with rice production averaging at 5 tonnes per ha. That was great in terms of food security and the desire of the authorities to achieve a large measure of security is very understandable. I am, however, like the many economists he quotes who find a fixation on grain output in an era of global trade to be outdated. The global market for grains is not a free market with practically all major producers and consumers distorting the economics of production. But in my experience farmers in developing countries stay poor when the plant rice, corn and wheat. Achieving 5 tonnes of rice per ha may be inspiring for those who so far have only got up to 2 mt/ha and raises Chinese farmers well above the poverty line but China should by now be moving from security to wealth. The richest areas in the world do not grow rice, corn and wheat. The amount of effort it would take to raise productivity still further is likely to be difficult to justify as being cost effective. It is in fact far better to allow diversification to continue. Best wishes, Vinay Chand, 230, Finchley Road, London NW3 6DJ, UK Tel: 44-20-7794 5977 Fax: 44-20-7431 5715 <address removed><mailto:<address removed>>
Please visit dfid-agriculture-consultation.nri.org.