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Greetings.  My name is Sarwat Hussain and I'm a communications specialist with
the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR).  DfID is
a strong supporter of the CGIAR, a strategic alliance of nations, international
and regional organizations and private foundations dedicated to mobilizing
agricultural science for the benefit of poor farmers.  The CGIAR (www.cgiar.org)
supports 15 international agricultural research Centers that work with national
governments and their agricultural research systems, civil society, and the
private sector to reduce poverty, foster human well being, promote agricultural
growth and protect our natural resources.  The Centers operate in over one
hundred countries and the results of their research are available to all.

I wanted to echo Dana Dalrymple's excellent contribution, and add more gloomy
arithmetic to the problematique he outlined if only to demonstrate both the
scale and complexity of the challenges -- economic, environmental, and social --
facing the agricultural sector.  Let me summarize these briefly.

   World population is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050
   Food demand is expected to more than double - bulk of increased demand come
   from developing countries
   Agriculture's ecological footprint is large and growing - erosion,
   salinization, compaction, and other forms of degradation already affect 30%
   of the world's irrigated lands, 40% rainfed, and 70% of rangelands
   Biodiversity is being lost at unprecedented rates; one-third of terrestrial
   biodiversity, accounting for 1.4 percent of the Earth's surface is in
   vulnerable 'hot spots' and threatened with complete loss in the event of
   natural disasters or further human encroachment (incl. ag. expansion)
   Agriculture is a profligate user of water - currently it takes 3-5,000 liters
   of water to produce on kilogram (2.2 lbs) of rice - overall, water use in
   agriculture is expected to increase by 50% over the next 30 years
   Arable land per capita is shrinking (from 0.32 ha in 1961 to 0.21 ha in 1997
   - expected to drop to 0.16 ha by 2030)
   Insect pests and pathogens decimate harvests and reduce plant productivity by
   40% in Africa and Asia
   Animal and crop husbandry are intricately linked.FMD, BSE, and avian flu have
   adversely affected economies and disrupted trade - it's sobering to remember
   that of the 1709 organisms causing diseases in humans, more than 50% are
   naturally transmitted from animals to humans (zoonoses)
   Earth's average surface temperature could rise by as much as 1.4 to 5.8
   degrees Celsius over next 100 years, increasing thermal stress and negatively
   affecting agricultural production in developing countries

Science, mobilized within a public goods framework, has proven to be an
effective way of averting the worst Malthusian specter.  The S&T community
cannot rest on past laurels: more than 3 billion people who live in rural areas
depend directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods.  Improving
the sustainability (however defined) and productivity of their agriculture is
key to meeting current and future challenges.  New crop and farming technologies
that boost productivity, make more prudent use of natural resources, and power
economic growth (on and off farms) are needed now more than ever before,
especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.  Donors such as DfID have shown the way
forward - such support must be sustained.

I hope these additional elements can also be considered as DfID formulates
future plans.

Sarwat

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